The equation for figuring Expected Value is moderately simple – just increase your likelihood of winning with the sum you could win per wager, and subtract the likelihood of losing duplicated by the sum lost per wager:
(Likelihood of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
To ascertain the normal incentive for games wagering, you can fill in the above equation with decimals chances with a couple of estimations ibet calculator:
Locate the decimal chances for every result (win, lose, draw)
Figure the potential rewards for every result by duplicating your stake by the decimal, and after that subtract the stake.
Separation 1 by the chances of a result to compute the likelihood of that result
Substitute this data into the above recipe.
For instance, when Manchester United (1.263) play Wigan (13.500), with a draw at 6.500, a wager of $10 on Wigan to win would give potential rewards of $125, with the likelihood of that occurrence at 0.074 or 7.4%.
The likelihood of this result not happening is the entirety of Man Utd and a draw, or 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The sum lost per wager is the underlying bet – $10. Along these lines the total recipe resembles:
(0.074 x $125) – (0.946 x $10) = – $0.20
The EV is negative for this wagered, proposing that you will lose a normal of $0.20 for each $10 staked.